Can climate change suppress the coronavirus or SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19?
Last week, John Nichols, a professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong, told a conference call with investors (the text of which was leaked online) that he expected the virus to go away on its own as the temperature rose. According to his prediction, the disease may subside by mid-May.
The death toll from coronavirus has now risen to more than 2,700, most of them in China.
The first outbreaks of the virus outside Asia were reported in France. The victim was an 80-year-old man traveling from China’s Hubei Province to China. As the world continues to hope that the virus will decrease with rising temperatures in the spring, Nancy Masnir, director of the CDC National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned that It is too early to say that warming the air will curb the virus.
His remarks came days after Donald Trump talked about eradicating the coronavirus miracle as soon as the weather warmed up. Nancy Masnir said the flu is a seasonal disease, and if it behaves like the flu, the incidence may decrease as we go through the spring and summer.
But COVID-19 is a new disease that has not been around for a long time and it is still not possible to say for sure how it went. He said he expects the virus to go away on its own as the temperature rises.
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According to his prediction, the disease may subside by mid-May. When asked by an AccuWeather reporter again for further analysis, Nichols was cautious in his comments to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
So the big question is: will this virus behave like other coronaviruses?
Nichols replied in an email to AccuWeather that the virus has essentially a similar structure to other coronaviruses. He added that SARS-CoV-2, or coronavirus, has the same receptor as the NL63 virus, which was discovered about 16 years ago. So my hypothesis is that with the onset of summer, the incidence of this virus will decrease; But I do not oppose the views of the CDC either.
According to Nichols, NL63 and SARS-CoV-2 have the same receptor, so they can be expected to behave similarly in the respiratory tract. Nichols likened COVID-19 to a severe cold.
Asked if the virus could be revived by the return of cold weather next fall, Nichols declined to comment. they do not. However, he also suggested that the outbreak could be affected by the change of seasons.
“The virus is not seasonal because it is a virus that is transmitted from animals to humans and cannot be compared to viruses that cause disease with a seasonal pattern,” Adalja said.
However, the virus has practically acted like a cold coronavirus, so I think as we get closer to spring and summer, the incidence of the virus will decrease. “If we take history as a criterion, we can expect the virus to not be as threatening in the summer as it is now,” he said.
Nichols is not the only expert who predicts that with the arrival of spring, the prevalence of the virus will decrease. Zhong Nanshan, an epidemiologist and senior medical adviser to the Chinese government, believes that COVID-19 will begin to disappear in mid-April.
Zhong apparently did not predict the weather. He bases his prediction on mathematical modeling and actions taken by the Chinese government.
“The main cause for concern is the unknown issues with COVID-19,” said the 83-year-old doctor, who played a key role in overcoming SARS in 2003.
We do not know why this disease is contagious and this is a big problem.